Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market favors OpenAI not having the second best AI model by June 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that OpenAI will not have the second best AI model by the end of June 2026, with an 88% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, suggesting a consensus on this outlook.

• 1 Current market probability shows strong skepticism towards OpenAI's future ranking.
• 2 The Pulse verdict aligns with market sentiment, reinforcing the 'NO' position.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level at 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in technology landscape.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.