Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for OpenAI having the second-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant bias against OpenAI achieving the second-best AI model, with a NO probability of 99.6%. The Pulse AI model also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of OpenAI's success in this regard. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for OpenAI's ranking.
• 2 The probability gap indicates strong skepticism about OpenAI's future performance.
• 3 Pulse AI's predictions align closely with market sentiment, reinforcing the NO stance.
• 4 The confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current market assessment.
• 5 Time until expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to any potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.