Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors OpenAI not having the third-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant lean towards OpenAI not achieving the third-best AI model, with a 99.6% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of OpenAI securing a top-three position in AI models by the specified date.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low confidence in OpenAI's ranking.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 106 hours, indicating urgency in market sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.