Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market favors 'NO' for OpenAI having the top AI model by June 2026.

The market probability indicates a strong belief that OpenAI will not have the leading AI model by the end of June 2026, with a significant majority at 82.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on this outlook, though with slightly higher optimism for OpenAI's chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 82.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view at 20.5% for 'YES'.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2654 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.