Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market indicates low confidence in OpenAI having the top AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a 'NO' outcome for OpenAI having the top AI model by March 2026, with a probability of 97.05%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES'. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for OpenAI's top model status.
• 2 OpenAI's competitive landscape includes several strong players in AI.
• 3 Market probabilities suggest a well-informed consensus among participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the final outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.