Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Market suggests a 62% chance OpenAI will not IPO by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 62% probability that OpenAI will not go public by the end of 2026, with a slight edge suggesting the market is fairly priced. The Pulse AI model aligns closely, showing a 58.5% probability for the same outcome, indicating moderate confidence in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards OpenAI delaying its IPO.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of -3.5.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for pur