Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Market predicts OpenAI's IPO market cap will not reach $1.5T.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against OpenAI achieving a $1.5T market cap on IPO day, with a 96.35% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors 'YES' at 5.15%, indicating some uncertainty but overall confidence in the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2682 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 The Pulse AI probability suggests a slight possibility of a more optimistic outlook.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for pur