Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Market sees low probability for OpenAI's cap to hit $750B-$1T on IPO day.

The prediction market indicates an 86.25% likelihood that OpenAI's market cap will not fall between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day. With a confidence level of 75/100, the market appears fairly priced, as reflected in the slight edge of 1.5. The time to expiry is substantial at 2702 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 Market cap expectations are influenced by broader tech market trends.
• 3 Historical performance of similar IPOs may inform predictions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is moderate, affecting price stability.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for significant developments to occur.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for pur