Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?

High probability for SpaceX IPO by September 2026, with market sentiment strongly favoring YES.

The prediction market shows an 85% probability for SpaceX to IPO by September 30, 2026, indicating strong confidence among participants. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 81.5%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of -3.5. Confidence levels are moderate at 65 out of 100, reflecting some uncertainty in the timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards a SpaceX IPO.
• 2 Key factors include SpaceX's financial performance and market conditions.
• 3 Historical base rates for tech IPOs may influence expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 6720 hours until the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.