Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?

Low probability for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 to launch by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the launch of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 by March 31, with a 97.6% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of success based on current data and confidence levels.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data suggests low success rates for similar timelines.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable but cautious.
• 4 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the analysis.

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.