Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Market indicates a 62.5% chance of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 exploding.

The prediction market shows a higher probability of explosion at 62.5%, compared to the Pulse AI's estimate of 57.5%. This suggests a consensus around potential risks associated with the test, though the market is considered fairly priced with a slight edge of -5.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a higher risk of explosion.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is minimal, indicating alignment.
• 3 Historical data on rocket test flights may influence perceptions of risk.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Uncertainty around the test timeline adds to the volatility of predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.