Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?

Low probability for SpaceX's market cap to hit $1.2T-$1.4T on IPO day.

The market shows a strong preference against SpaceX's market cap reaching between $1.2T and $1.4T at IPO close, with a 92.8% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also indicates a similar trend, albeit with slightly higher probabilities, suggesting a consensus that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Market probabilities indicate a strong belief in lower valuation.
• 3 Historical performance of tech IPOs influences current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting existing odds.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purpo