Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Market is evenly split on SpaceX's IPO market cap being $1.5T to $2.0T.

The market shows a slight lean towards SpaceX's market cap falling between $1.5T and $2.0T, with probabilities at 52.5% for YES and 47.5% for NO. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty about the outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment is closely divided around the IPO valuation.
• 2 Market probabilities suggest a balanced view on SpaceX's potential.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 4 No clear edge suggests fair pricing in the market.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding to the unpredictability.

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purpo