Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?

Market expects SpaceX's cap to be below $700B on IPO day.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against SpaceX's market cap reaching between $700B and $800B at IPO close, with a 99.5% probability for the NO outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of the cap falling within the specified range.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical performance of tech IPOs may influence perceptions.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable but cautious.
• 4 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purpo