Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Market favors NO on Tesla delivering 350,000-375,000 vehicles in Q1 2026.

The prediction market shows an 83% probability that Tesla will not deliver between 350,000 and 375,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, with a Pulse verdict confirming this stance. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge, indicating a moderate level of confidence in the NO outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors NO on vehicle deliveries.
• 2 Market probability suggests skepticism about meeting delivery targets.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES at 20%.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 517 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.