Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Market predicts Tesla will deliver fewer than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards Tesla delivering less than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, with a probability of 75.50%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 72%, indicating a consensus on potential delivery challenges. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -3.5, suggesting limited room for significant shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors lower delivery numbers.
• 2 Key factors include production capacity and supply chain issues.
• 3 Historical performance may influence expectations for Q1 2026.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting current market pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 513 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.