Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Market indicates low likelihood of Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30.

The prediction market shows an 18% probability for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by the end of June, with a stronger consensus against it at 82%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 21% for a YES outcome, suggesting the market is fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is slightly higher than Pulse AI's estimate.
• 3 Market confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at nearly 2700 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 The edge of 3 indicates the market is likely well-balanced in pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.