Will Tesla reach $420 in March?

Market leans towards Tesla not reaching $420 in March.

The current market probability indicates a higher likelihood that Tesla will not reach $420 in March, with a 63.5% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 41%. With a confidence level of 55/100 and a time to expiry of 403 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome for Tesla reaching $420.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 A confidence level of 55/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry of 403 hours allows for potential market fluctuations.
• 5 An edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.