Will "The Captive" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for 'The Captive' being the top Netflix movie this week.

'The Captive' has a very low market probability of 1.10% for being the top US Netflix movie, indicating strong skepticism. The Pulse AI probability also supports this, showing only a slight increase in confidence for a 'YES' outcome. With a confidence rating of 55/100 and a time to expiry of 58 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO'.
• 2 The Captive's low probability suggests weak viewer interest.
• 3 Historical data shows similar trends for Netflix releases.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with minimal fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure may influence last-minute changes in viewer behavior.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".