Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

The market indicates a low likelihood of the chopsticks catching the booster.

With a market probability of 9.15% for a successful catch, the consensus leans heavily towards failure. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors the 'YES' outcome at 10.65%, suggesting some uncertainty but overall agreement with the market's stance.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a consensus on the low likelihood of success.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.