Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

The market predicts over 1000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026 with high certainty.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that there will be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with a market probability of 100% and a Pulse AI probability of 99%. This indicates a significant concern regarding measles outbreaks, potentially influenced by vaccination rates and public health policies.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus with 100% probability for YES.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% probability.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 75/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 7113 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of -1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.