Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

The market predicts at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 2026 with high certainty.

Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief that there will be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by the specified date, with a market probability of 100%. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 99% probability, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of this outcome.

• 1 Market shows unanimous confidence in the occurrence of 1450 measles cases.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of -1 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80 suggests moderate certainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 64 hours remaining.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.