Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

The market predicts a high likelihood of at least 1575 measles cases by March 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for YES, there is strong consensus that measles cases will exceed 1575 in the U.S. by the specified date. The Pulse AI probability further supports this with a 99% likelihood, indicating a high confidence level in this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of increased measles cases.
• 2 Key factors include vaccination rates and public health initiatives.
• 3 Historical data shows fluctuating measles cases but recent trends are concerning.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting strong participant confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with 60 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.