Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of 1600 measles cases by March 2026.

With a market probability of 0.80% for at least 1600 measles cases, the consensus leans heavily towards a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 2.8% probability for YES, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant outbreak remains low.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows low incidence rates for measles in recent years.
• 3 Vaccination efforts have significantly reduced measles cases.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, indicating urgency in market movements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.