Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of 1625 measles cases by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the occurrence of at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by the specified date, with a NO probability of 99.6%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a low likelihood of such an outbreak occurring.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows a declining trend in measles cases due to vaccination.
• 3 Market pricing appears to reflect the consensus view accurately.
• 4 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, suggesting urgency in monitoring developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.