Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low likelihood of 1650 measles cases by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the occurrence of at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by the specified date, with a NO probability of 99.6%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows low measles incidence in recent years.
• 3 Vaccination efforts have significantly reduced measles cases.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, indicating urgency in market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.