Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that there will not be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by the specified date, with a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.05%, suggesting a consensus on the low likelihood of a significant outbreak.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects low concern over measles resurgence.
• 3 Historical data supports low incidence rates of measles in recent years.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge noted.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, indicating limited time for changes in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.