Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

High probability of at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that there will be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with a market probability of 97.75%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 96.75%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 Historical trends show increasing measles cases in recent years.
• 3 The market appears to be efficiently priced with minimal edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.