Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Market predicts a high likelihood of over 4000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 73% probability of at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026, aligning closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 72%. With a confidence level of 65 out of 100 and a time to expiry of over 7000 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a slight negative edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a rise in measles cases.
• 2 Historical data on measles outbreaks may inform future predictions.
• 3 Vaccination trends are critical to understanding potential case numbers.
• 4 Market liquidity is stable, reflecting consistent interest in this prediction.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, allowing for potential shifts in public health responses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.