Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

The market predicts over 500 measles cases in the U.S. by 2026 with high confidence.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that there will be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with a market probability of 100%. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a probability of 99%, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Market shows unanimous support for at least 500 cases by 2026.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market predictions, indicating strong consensus.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 4 The edge of -1 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes in public health dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.