Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

The market strongly favors that xAI will not have the #1 AI model by April 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of xAI achieving the top AI model status, with a 96.65% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for 'YES' at 6.35%, suggesting some optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily leans towards xAI not being the top model.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a consensus on xAI's current standing.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in the market.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on ano