Will xAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

The market strongly favors NO for xAI having the best math model on March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of xAI achieving the best AI model for math, with a NO probability of 98.8%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the consensus is against xAI's chances. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability for YES is very low at 1.20%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 4.2%.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 481 hours remain until the market's expiry, allowing time for developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.