Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for xAI having the second-best AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of 99.35% for NO, suggesting skepticism about xAI's competitive position. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, reinforcing the market's view that xAI is unlikely to achieve the second-best AI model status. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears fairly priced, but there remains a slight edge for potential shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.35%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also supports the NO stance at 96.35%.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 420 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.