Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Market indicates low confidence in xAI having the top AI model by June 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong preference against xAI having the top AI model, with a 90.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that market participants are skeptical about xAI's competitive position in the AI landscape by mid-2026.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 90.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2565 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.