Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Market strongly favors Z.ai not having the top AI model by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability that Z.ai will not have the leading AI model by the end of March 2026, with a 99.65% chance for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a consensus that Z.ai faces significant challenges in achieving this status.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO'.
• 2 Z.ai's competitive position appears weak based on current data.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with a low edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 468 hours.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.