💰 Business & Finance Markets

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

45.57%

Market YES

54%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.07% +5.5 pts

40/100

Market shows a near-even split on future US Fed Funds rate exceeding 4%.

How many traders will bet?

41.81%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.31% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will a federal "Major Disaster Declaration" be issued for any US state due to severe weather by March 30th 11:59 PM EST

4.83%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 36.27% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards no federal disaster declaration by March 30th.

Will SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?

46.64%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.14% +5.5 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

9%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability of the federal funds rate falling below 2.5% by July 2026.

Will this market have more than 50 unique traders by the end of this week?

18.57%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.07% +5.5 pts

55/100

Low likelihood of exceeding 50 unique traders this week.

Will "Don't Sell Stock to Donate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

13.51%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.01% +5.5 pts

50/100

The market favors a NO outcome for the post's inclusion in the review.

Any federal MPs floor-cross in the next year?

47%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.5% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

11.62%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.12% +5.5 pts

50/100

Market shows low probability for federal charges against ICE agents in Pretti's case.

WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?

37.18%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.68% +5.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?

32.33%

Market YES

68%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.97% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a low probability of the US entering a recession by 2026.

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Chancellor Merz is unlikely to announce a defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by 2026.

Recession in Australia in 2026?

39.02%

Market YES

61%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.52% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Novo Nordisk stock price under $30 during 2026?

48.49%

Market YES

52%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.99% +5.5 pts

50/100

Market views Novo Nordisk stock price near $30 in 2026 as highly uncertain.

Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?

37.28%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.48% +5.5 pts

50/100

The market suggests a lower likelihood of the UK entering a technical recession in 2026.

Will a publicly traded asteroid‑mining company exist by EOY 2050?

10.02%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.24% +5.5 pts

45/100

Low probability for a publicly traded asteroid-mining company by 2050.

Will European Central Bank cut interest rates before June 2026?

18%

Market YES

82%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Low probability for ECB rate cuts before June 2026, with a strong consensus against it.

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

52.51%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.06% +5.5 pts

50/100

The market is nearly evenly split on banning hemp-derived THC products by 2026.

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

19.29%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.79% +5.5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards no change in the Fed's inflation target by 2028.

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

23%

Market YES

77%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 28.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of 3 or more Fed rate cuts by 2026.

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

43%

Market YES

57%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.5% +5.5 pts

45/100

Market shows uncertainty about significant GDP growth before 2040.

Will this market get 50 unique traders by the end of March?

13%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.5% +5.5 pts

50/100

The market is unlikely to reach 50 unique traders by the end of March.

Nasdaq correction by end of June 2026

48%

Market YES

52%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.5% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will you be able to trade against the house on Polymarket or Kalshi before 2028?

13.33%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.83% +5.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.