💰 Business & Finance Markets

Will SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?

46.64%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.14% +5.5 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will a federal "Major Disaster Declaration" be issued for any US state due to severe weather by March 30th 11:59 PM EST

4.83%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 36.27% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards no federal disaster declaration by March 30th.

How many traders will bet?

41.81%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.31% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

45.57%

Market YES

54%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.07% +5.5 pts

40/100

Market shows a near-even split on future US Fed Funds rate exceeding 4%.

Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?

18.91%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.41% +5.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low probability for US GDP per capita to exceed Western Europe's by 2050.

Will this market get at least 50 unique traders before April?

20.74%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market unlikely to reach 50 unique traders by April.

Will this market have a number of traders that is equal to a prime number?

14.85%

Market YES

85%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.35% +5.5 pts

50/100

The market is unlikely to have a prime number of traders.

Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?

58.08%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.36% -4.5 pts

45/100

There is a slight probability favoring the federation of African countries by 2040.

Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?

99.95%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $360K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 93.9% -4.5 pts

60/100

High probability of no change at the ECB's March 2026 meeting.

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

98.95%

Market YES

1%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $138K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 94.45% -4.5 pts

60/100

High probability for no significant events from Jerome Powell in the near future.

Will the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?

63%

Market YES

37%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.5% -4.5 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

97.9%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.8M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.5% -4.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a high probability of inflation rising by ≥2.8% in March.

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

100%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $627K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.05% -4.5 pts

60/100

High probability of no change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting.

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

85.5%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82% -4.5 pts

60/100

High probability of low transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 3.

Effective Altruism stock [permanent]

69.99%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65.49% -4.5 pts

40/100

The market favors a positive outlook for Effective Altruism with a 69.99% probability.

Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]

57.9%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.4% -4.5 pts

40/100

Market shows a slight favor towards superintelligence being achieved.

Will U.S. CPI inflation (YoY, all items) for March 2026 come in below 3.0%?

52.96%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.46% -4.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31?

86.5%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $119K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83% -4.5 pts

65/100

The market predicts an 87.5% chance the S&P 500 will open up on March 31.

Will Project Vault's stockpile cause U.S. lithium prices to fall below $18/kg by March 22, 2026?

14.61%

Market YES

85%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.11% +4.5 pts

60/100

Low probability for U.S. lithium prices to drop below $18/kg by March 2026.

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $224K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69% -4.5 pts

65/100

The market predicts a 73.5% chance the S&P 500 will rise by March 30.

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?

99.95%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $194K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 95.05% -4.5 pts

65/100

The market strongly favors the S&P 500 opening up on March 16.

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

8.99%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $44K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.8% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Alcatraz holding ten federal inmates before January 20, 2029.

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

18%

Market YES

82%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.5% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates a low probability of the federal funds rate dropping below 1% in 5 years.

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

47.27%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.77% +3.5 pts

50/100

Market sentiment is split on the occurrence of acausal trade before 2040.