💰 Business & Finance Markets

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

20.36%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.59% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards no rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026.

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

14.07%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.57% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market favors that Musk's Twitter investment will not outperform the NASDAQ.

Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?

12.23%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.5% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low likelihood of US GDP growth exceeding 10% in 2029.

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

36%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.5% +3.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards no significant GDP jump by 2040.

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

29.8%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 33.3% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards CBN sleep products being illegal by Nov 2026.

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

42.37%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 45.87% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market sentiment is divided on whether tariff refunds will be issued to most payers.

Will the US experience a recession during 2026?

37%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.07% +3.5 pts

45/100

The market suggests a low probability of a US recession in 2026.

US recession in 2026?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.87% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market suggests low likelihood of a US recession in 2026.

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

24.92%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.56% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market suggests low probability of negative GDP growth in early 2026.

Will Argentina dollarize its economy before 2028?

7%

Market YES

93%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $38K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.5% +3.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of Argentina dollarizing its economy before 2028.

Will I become CEO, CFO, COO, CIO of any publicly traded company by 2100(NYSE, NYSEArca, Nasdaq)

9.35%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.25% +3.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of becoming a CEO, CFO, COO, or CIO by 2100.

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

47.27%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.77% +3.5 pts

50/100

Market sentiment is split on the occurrence of acausal trade before 2040.

Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026?

1.67%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $14K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.03% +3.5 pts

60/100

The market strongly favors that cannabis will not be federally legalized by 2026.

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

8.99%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $44K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.8% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Alcatraz holding ten federal inmates before January 20, 2029.

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?

11.81%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.31% +3.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low probability for a 20% GDP jump before 2030.

Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?

10.98%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.97% +3.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates low likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June 2026.

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

6.05%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.55% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability of Argentina's inflation being below 18% by December 2026.

EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?

16.26%

Market YES

84%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.79% +3.5 pts

55/100

The market shows low likelihood of the EU activating trade measures against the US before 2027.

Will the UK have a Land Value Tax that raises over £10Bn inflation adjusted by 2030?

11.36%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.86% +3.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability for a UK Land Value Tax raising over £10Bn by 2030.

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

59.07%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $19K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.49% +3.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards US inflation being below 3% in 2026.

This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)

1.07%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $25K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.5% +3.5 pts

45/100

Market strongly favors a NO resolution by 2050 regarding the risk-free interest rate.

Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $63 in 2026?

50.86%

Market YES

49%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $34K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.03% +3.5 pts

55/100

Intel stock has a nearly even chance of reaching $63 by 2026.

Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?

12.26%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.76% +3.5 pts

45/100

The market shows a low probability for the world's GDP to double in 5 years.

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $326K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.55% +3.5 pts

60/100

Low market probability suggests minimal expectation of a US recession by 2025.