Events › Geopolitics › US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by …
Geopolitics 1 platform 3 markets

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Combined AI YES
32.3%
Avg Confidence
65/100
Combined Volume
$2.3M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?…
0.80%
36.50%
AI YES
+2
Edge pts
75
Confidence
$2M
Volume
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?…
28.50%
40.00%
AI YES
-4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$247K
Volume
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?…
9.50%
19.50%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$92K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?…
 0.80% 36.50% +2
75
$2M
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?…
near 		28.50% 40.00% -4.5
60
$247K
Polymarket
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?…
near 		9.50% 19.50% +3.5
60
$92K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 0.80% NO 99.20%
Polymarket
YES 28.50% NO 71.50%
Polymarket
YES 9.50% NO 90.50%
Spread: 27.7 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'no' outcome.
  • 2 The probabilities suggest a stable geopolitical environment for now.
  • 3 Historical trends show limited US military intervention in the area.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for accurate pricing.
  • 5 Time pressure is moderate with 431 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 0.80%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?…
Polymarket 28.50%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?…
Polymarket 9.50%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?…
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