Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?…

20.00%

26.82%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?…

11.50%

15.21%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$28K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?…

23.11%

34.12%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$11K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?…

9.40%

14.40%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?…

12.53%

14.93%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$1K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?…	20.00%	26.82%	+5	50	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?… near	11.50%	15.21%	+5	55	$28K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?… near	23.11%	34.12%	+5	50	$11K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?… near	9.40%	14.40%	+5	50	$2K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?… near	12.53%	14.93%	+5	45	$1K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?… near	16.67%	23.67%	+7	40	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?… near	16.24%	23.24%	+7	40	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 20.00% NO 80.00%

Manifold

YES 11.50% NO 88.50%

Manifold

YES 23.11% NO 76.89%

Manifold

YES 9.40% NO 90.60%

Manifold

YES 12.53% NO 87.47%

Spread: 13.7 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Market probability shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 89.79%.
2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher risk perception at 15.21%.
3 The edge of 5 suggests the market is fairly priced with low volatility.
4 Confidence level of 55/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
5 Time to expiry of 7100 hours allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.