Events › Geopolitics › Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?…
Geopolitics 2 platforms 5 markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Combined AI YES
18.6%
Avg Confidence
87/100
Combined Volume
$110.7M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?…
0.15%
1.65%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
95
Confidence
$61.8M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?…
16.50%
19.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
95
Confidence
$23.3M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?…
6.50%
9.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
95
Confidence
$13.4M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?…
33.50%
34.00%
AI YES
-1.5
Edge pts
95
Confidence
$12.3M
Volume
Manifold
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?…
25.32%
35.48%
AI YES
+5
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$26K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?…
 0.15% 1.65% +1.5
95
$61.8M
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?…
near 		16.50% 19.50% +3
95
$23.3M
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?…
near 		6.50% 9.50% +3
95
$13.4M
Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?…
near 		33.50% 34.00% -1.5
95
$12.3M
Manifold
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?…
near 		25.32% 35.48% +5
55
$26K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 0.15% NO 99.85%
Polymarket
YES 16.50% NO 83.50%
Polymarket
YES 6.50% NO 93.50%
Polymarket
YES 33.50% NO 66.50%
Manifold
YES 25.32% NO 74.68%
Spread: 33.4 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in regime stability.
  • 2 Pulse AI indicates a marginally higher chance of regime change.
  • 3 Current probabilities suggest a well-priced market with minimal edge.
  • 4 High confidence level of 95/100 reflects strong market sentiment.
  • 5 Uncertainty about time to expiry may affect future market dynamics.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 5 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 0.15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?…
Polymarket 16.50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?…
Polymarket 6.50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?…
Polymarket 33.50%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?…
Manifold 25.32%
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?…
Related Events
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in March 2026?…
345 markets
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)…
228 markets
Games Total: O/U 2.5…
223 markets
Will Andrew Tate post 520-549 posts from March 3 to March 10…
119 markets
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 23?…
99 markets