Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling before 2027.

Current market probabilities suggest a 35.5% chance of the Iranian regime falling before 2027, with a stronger consensus on its stability. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this view, indicating a 34% chance of regime change, reflecting a cautious outlook on political dynamics in Iran.

• 1 Market probability suggests a stable regime outlook.
• 2 Pulse AI reflects similar skepticism about regime change.
• 3 Confidence level indicates strong market conviction.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments.
• 5 Edge suggests market pricing is balanced and fair.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will