Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30.

Current market probabilities suggest a 27.5% chance of the Iranian regime's fall by the end of June, with a consensus leaning towards stability. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, indicating a strong belief in the regime's resilience at this time.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment at 72.5%.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely with market, indicating consensus.
• 3 Edge of -1.5 suggests fair pricing with little room for mispricing.
• 4 High confidence level of 95/100 indicates strong data backing.
• 5 Time to expiry of 2469 hours allows for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not