Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on…

0.35%

7.25%

AI YES

+4.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$145K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on…

2.15%

9.50%

AI YES

+4.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$535K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on …

97.40%

87.00%

AI YES

-5.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$259K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on Marc…

0.20%

4.75%

AI YES

+4.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$120K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March …

0.20%

4.75%

AI YES

+4.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$80K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 3…	0.35%	7.25%	+4.5	60	$145K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 2…	2.15%	9.50%	+4.5	60	$535K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15…	97.40%	87.00%	-5.5	60	$259K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on… near	0.20%	4.75%	+4.5	60	$120K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on M… near	0.20%	4.75%	+4.5	60	$80K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 0.35% NO 99.65%

Polymarket

YES 2.15% NO 97.85%

Polymarket

YES 97.40% NO 2.60%

Polymarket

YES 0.20% NO 99.80%

Polymarket

YES 0.20% NO 99.80%

Spread: 97.2 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the NO probability.
3 Historical trends show tariffs have not fluctuated within this range recently.
4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
5 Time pressure of 182 hours may influence last-minute sentiment changes.