Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?

Market strongly favors tariffs remaining above 5% by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.75%) that the U.S. tariff rate on China will not fall below 5% by March 31. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher chance for a lower rate at 4.75%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 182 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors tariffs remaining above 5%.
• 2 The Pulse verdict aligns with the market's NO probability.
• 3 There is a notable gap between market and AI probabilities, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 5 Time pressure may influence last-minute changes in sentiment as expiry approaches.

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).

Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.