Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

High probability suggests tariffs on China will be between 5% and 15% by March 31.

The market indicates a strong belief, with a 92.5% probability, that the U.S. tariff rate on China will fall between 5% and 15% by March 31. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 87%. The edge of -5.5 suggests that the NO side may be undervalued, indicating potential market uncertainty.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 182 hours, increasing urgency.
• 5 Historical trends may influence perceptions of tariff adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).

Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.