Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Market strongly favors a NO outcome for U.S. tariff rates on China by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 97.25% probability that the U.S. tariff rate on China will not fall between 25% and 35% by March 31. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, which also shows a strong NO sentiment. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the NO probability.
• 3 Historical trends show tariffs have not fluctuated within this range recently.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure of 182 hours may influence last-minute sentiment changes.

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).

Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.