Events › Geopolitics › Will the US officially declare war on Iran by…
Geopolitics 1 platform 4 markets

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Combined AI YES
8.2%
Avg Confidence
80/100
Combined Volume
$5.2M
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026…
0.05%
4.25%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
90
Confidence
$4.4M
Volume
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, …
1.40%
1.90%
AI YES
+0.5
Edge pts
85
Confidence
$384K
Volume
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2…
9.50%
14.50%
AI YES
+3
Edge pts
80
Confidence
$308K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?…
9.70%
14.20%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$119K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31,…
 0.05% 4.25% +3
90
$4.4M
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June…
near 		1.40% 1.90% +0.5
85
$384K
Polymarket
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December …
near 		9.50% 14.50% +3
80
$308K
Polymarket
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?…
near 		9.70% 14.20% +4.5
65
$119K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Polymarket
YES 1.40% NO 98.60%
Polymarket
YES 9.50% NO 90.50%
Polymarket
YES 9.70% NO 90.30%
Spread: 9.7 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against war.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still low.
  • 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge.
  • 4 Confidence level is high at 90/100, indicating strong market sentiment.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 0.05%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026…
Polymarket 1.40%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, …
Polymarket 9.50%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2…
Polymarket 9.70%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?…
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