Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of the US declaring war on Iran by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 1.25% chance of the US officially declaring war on Iran by March 31, 2026, with a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with the market, suggesting a low likelihood of conflict escalation in this timeframe.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against war.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still low.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 90/100, indicating strong market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.