Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the US declaring war on Iran by 2026.

Current market probabilities show an 11.5% chance of the US officially declaring war on Iran by the end of 2026, with a stronger consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 14.5%, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall agreement that war is unlikely. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives on risk.
• 3 Historical trends show low rates of formal declarations of war in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with no signs of extreme volatility.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential developments that could influence sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.